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Hurricane Prep: social media (English) * 2026 SOCIAL MEDIA PLANS AND VIDEOS. English: May 3 - May 9, 2026. En español: 3 de mayo - NOAA (.gov) Show all Traditional Rhyme: "June, too soon; July, stand by; August, it's a must; September will remember; October, it's all over." Empowering Quote: "You are stronger than the storm you're facing. Preparation today is your best defense for tomorrow." Quick Hook: "Blue skies today, prepared for gray. It’s hurricane season—get your 'Go Kit' ready! 🌀 #HurricanePrep #HurricaneStrong." Business & Customer Support Before the Storm: "With Hurricane [Name] approaching, our thoughts are with you. Please take necessary precautions and stay safe. Our team is here to support you." Support Update: "Due to hurricane season activity, our office hours may be impacted. For the fastest assistance, please reach us via text at [Phone Number]." AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses Copy Creating a public link... You can now share this thread with others Good response Bad response 14 sites Governor Kathy Hochul | New York State May 8, 2025 —
Report: North Atlantic Hurricane Season – Overview, Trends, and Outlook 1. Executive Summary The North Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30 , peaking from mid-August through October. The season’s activity is primarily governed by sea surface temperatures, wind shear, atmospheric moisture, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In recent decades, warming ocean temperatures have contributed to a higher proportion of major hurricanes (Category 3+), slower storm motion, and more rapid intensification events. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA, Colorado State University (CSU), and other centers provide probabilistic guidance, but all coastal regions should maintain year-round readiness. 2. Climatological Basics
Average Activity (1991–2020 baseline): 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (Cat 3+). Peak Period: ~90% of activity occurs after August 1; the climatological peak is around September 10 . Typical Tracks:
Early season (June–July): Gulf of Mexico, western Caribbean. Peak season (Aug–Oct): Cape Verde islands to eastern Caribbean; also Gulf and western Atlantic. Late season (Nov): Western Caribbean, Bahamas, southern Florida. hurrican season
3. Key Environmental Drivers | Factor | Favorable for active season | Unfavorable for active season | |--------|----------------------------|-------------------------------| | Sea surface temperatures | ≥26.5°C (80°F) over broad area | Cooler than average | | Vertical wind shear | Low shear (≤10 knots) | High shear (≥20 knots) | | Mid-level humidity | High (≥60%) | Dry air intrusions (Saharan Air Layer) | | ENSO | La Niña (low shear over Atlantic) | El Niño (high shear over Atlantic) | | Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation | Warm phase (since 1995) | Cool phase |
Current note (2024–2025 context): As of the 2024 season, record-warm North Atlantic temperatures have offset typical El Niño suppression, demonstrating that local ocean heat can dominate ENSO signals.
4. Recent Trends (2017–2024)
Rapid intensification (RI): Storms like Harvey (2017), Michael (2018), Ida (2021), and Lee (2023) all intensified by ≥35 mph in 24 hours. RI is becoming more common. Slow-moving storms: Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Dorian (2019) stalled over land, increasing rainfall totals by 30–50% compared to a faster-moving storm. Post-tropical transition: Many storms (e.g., Fiona 2022, Lee 2023) retain hurricane-force winds after extratropical transition, affecting Canada and Europe. Earlier first named storms: Pre-June named storms have occurred in 7 of the last 10 years (e.g., Tropical Storm Ana in May 2021).
5. Seasonal Forecasting Major forecast centers issue outlooks in early April (pre-season) and late May/early June (updated). They use:
Statistical models (analog years, SST anomalies) Dynamic models (ECMWF, CFSv2, UKMO) Multi-model ensembles Hurricane Prep: social media (English) * 2026 SOCIAL
Example forecast metrics (typical active season): | Parameter | Below-normal | Near-normal | Above-normal | |-----------|--------------|-------------|---------------| | Named storms | ≤10 | 11–15 | ≥16 | | Hurricanes | ≤5 | 6–8 | ≥9 | | Major hurricanes | ≤2 | 3–4 | ≥5 | | Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) | ≤70 | 70–120 | ≥120 |
ACE integrates storm intensity and duration.
